21 Nov

Inflation numbers – how could they affect interest rates?

General

Posted by: Robert Hein

The decline in headline and core inflation and the weakening economy ensure the BoC will hold rates steady on December 6th.
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Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked
Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% y/y, down from the 3.8% rise in September. There were no surprises here, so markets moved little on the news. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.6% in October, compared to 3.7% the month before.

The most significant contributors to inflation remain mortgage interest costs, food purchased at stores, and rent.
Canadians continued to feel the impact of rising rent prices, which grew faster (y/y) in October (+8.2%) than in September (+7.3%). The national increase reflected acceleration across most provinces. The most significant increases in rent prices were seen in Nova Scotia (+14.6%), Alberta (+9.9%), British Columbia (+9.1%) and Quebec (+9.1%).
Property taxes and other special charges, priced annually in October, rose 4.9% yearly, compared with a 3.6% increase in October 2022. The national increase in October 2023 was the largest since October 1992, with homeowners paying more in all but one province, as municipalities required larger budgets to cover rising costs. Property taxes in Manitoba (-0.3%) declined for the third consecutive year, mainly due to reduced provincial education tax.

While goods prices decelerated by -1.6% as prices at the pump fell, prices for services rose 4.6% last month, primarily driven by higher prices for travel tours, rent and property taxes.

While grocery prices remained elevated, they also continued their trend of slower year-over-year growth, with a 5.4% increase in October following a 5.8% gain in September. While deceleration continued to be broad-based, fresh vegetables (+5.0%) contributed the most to the slowdown.

Excluding food and energy, inflation fell to 2.7% in October, down a tick from the September reading. Two other inflation measures closely tracked by the Bank of Canada–the so-called trim and median core rates–also eased, averaging 3.6% from an upwardly revised 3.8% a month earlier
Bottom Line

According to Bloomberg calculations, another critical measure, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, fell to an annualized pace of 2.96% from 3.67% a month earlier. It’s an important metric because Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said policymakers are tracking it closely to understand inflation trends.

Today’s news shows that tighter monetary policy is working to bring down the inflation rate. In its Monetary Policy Report last month, the Bank of Canada expected the CPI to average 3.5% through mid-2024. Cutting its economic forecast, the Bank forecasted it would hit its 2% inflation target in the second half of 2025.

Given today’s data and the likely significant slowdown in Q3 GDP growth, released on November 30, and the Labour Force Survey for November the following day, policy rates have peaked. Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech on the cost of high inflation in New Brunswick tomorrow, and the subsequent decision date for the Governing Council is December 6th. The Bank’s inflation-chopping rhetoric may be relatively hawkish, but the expectation of rate cuts could spur the spring housing market.

The economists at BMO have pointed out that “three provinces now have an inflation rate below 2%, while only three are above 3%, so much of the country is already seeing serious signs of stabilization. (Unfortunately, the two largest provinces have the fastest inflation rates—Quebec at 4.2% and Ontario at 3.3%).” There is no need for the Bank to raise rates again, and they could begin to cut interest rates in the second quarter of next year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
8 Nov

Advice on Buying Historic Homes

General

Posted by: Robert Hein

For those of us with a flair for aesthetics or a penchant for history, historic homes offer a unique chance to own something special.

What is a Historic Home?

Typically, for a home to be considered “historic”, it needs to demonstrate rare or outstanding architecture. Typically, historic homes are at least 50 years of age, but it can be younger depending on what it represents in relation to Canadian design.

In addition, the home must be a landmark or hold historical value connected to a notable event, person, or institution in Canadian history.

Considerations for Historic Homes

When it comes to buying a historic home, there are a few additional considerations to keep in mind.

The first is that there are generally special bylaws, permits, and rules for historic homes. Features such as “character-defining” elements of the home, for example, cannot be changed, destroyed, or removed. Depending on the history of the home, there may be other features that require preservation per the story of the home and its significance to history. In some cases, trees or the lawn may also be assigned for conservation.

Due to the preservation goal of historic homes, there are limited things that you can do if you purchase one in terms of renovations. There will be special considerations for any expansions or modifications that will often need to be approved to ensure it does not impact the historical aspects of the home.

Another thing to consider when looking at historic homes is merely the age of the building. This can result in more costly maintenance, especially if the home has outdated elements or structures.

A proper home inspection can help to reveal any areas that may be cause for issues in the future or advise potential updates and renovations that are doable. Overall, you want to evaluate the home to ensure it has solid bones and structural integrity.

Benefits of Historic Homes

For individuals who are highly interested in history and culture, these homes can be an incredible opportunity to own a unique piece of history. Whether from an emotional or intellectual standpoint, this can be a very fulfilling purchase resulting in a one-of-a-kind home with a special link to Canada’s past.

In addition to owning a piece of history, there are more benefits such as joining a community that is committed to preservation with like-minded individuals.

Before diving into homeownership, especially that of a historic home, it is important to ask yourself if you are ready for the responsibility of owning a culturally significant property. Ownership of these properties is a privilege and must always be treated as such.

Written by the DLC Marketing Team

2 Nov

So, you need a tenant

General

Posted by: Robert Hein

So, you need a tenant.

If you have a basement suite or rental property and you are currently looking for a tenant, there are some things to know! Whether this is your first tenant or you have other rental properties, it is a good idea to familiarize yourself with the specifics to ensure a harmonious tenancy.

As always, your responsibility as the landlord is to keep your rental properties in good condition and ensure they meet health, safety, and housing standards. However, as a landlord, you also have additional responsibilities around the rental agreement and tenant regulations.

Tenancy Agreement

Landlords are required to prepare a written agreement for every tenancy. Bear in mind, if this agreement is not prepared the standard terms for your province will still apply, especially if a security deposit is paid. This agreement should clearly outline the following:

  • Who the agreement is between
  • The length of the tenancy
  • Rent amount and due date
  • Required deposits (if any)
  • Pet restrictions (if any)
  • Additional terms (smoking or non-smoking, etc)

The tenancy agreement should also outline if there is the ability to add a roommate, and whether or not utilities, parking, storage, laundry, etc. are included.

Deposits

Typically, a security or damage deposit is requested by the landlord to establish tenancy and cover any unexpected issues that may arise. The deposit can be no more than half of the first month’s rent.

If you are charging a pet deposit fee, note that guide or service pets are exempt from any damage deposits. In addition, you cannot charge fees beyond the pet damage deposit.

Move In

To ensure the move-in goes smoothly, tenants and landlords should schedule a move-in time that works for everyone. At the beginning of the tenancy, you may also consider an inspection before the new tenant has moved in to ensure everyone is on the same page and the condition of the unit is clear in regard to any potential damages or fixes needed.

As a landlord, you are also responsible for changing the locks (at your cost) should the new tenant request it.

Additional Considerations

As a landlord, you will want to assess the suitability of any new tenant before signing the agreement. There are a few things you can do to ensure a smooth process and the right choice of tenant:

  • Ask for proof of identity
  • Thoroughly check all references
  • Contact previous landlords to ask about rental and payment history
  • Conduct a credit check to confirm income and financial suitability
  • Get the names of all persons to be living in the rental unit

Once you have reviewed the above, you will be in a good position to determine if the potential tenant is a good fit for the rental space.

However, keep in mind that you cannot refuse to rent to a tenant based on any discriminatory aspects such as race, gender, sexual orientation, religion, etc. In addition, you cannot refuse to rent to individuals on income assistance.

While it can seem like a lot, with the proper preparation and understanding of tenant laws and regulations in your area, you can ensure a smooth and successful rental process!

Written by MY DLC Marketing Team